Swine flu in california and SRI in Mexico?

NOT H5N1 but may still cause some havoc...doesnt appear to be sars but some of the stats re the initial deaths in Mexico are concerning...just wait and see I guess

http://www.latimes.com/news/s

Hi Bones; I don't know much

Hi Bones;

I don't know much about viruses, but don't they have the potential to mutate? If this is true, what would it take for this one to become as virulent as the one that killed 40 million people, worldwide, in 1918? Another question: With the shortage of doctors and nurses how are we to deal with something like this?

damagedgoods

Hi Dg;

How are you doing? Is the new doctor helping you? I hope so.

As far as this flu is concerned, with the migration we have from Mexico to California this thing is scary. I live closer to San Diego than to Los Angeles, so it's worrisome.

New cases in San diageo

New cases in San diageo today but so far none fatal. Mexico has the same strain and it SEEMs to be H1N1 NOT H5N1. Too early to tell how bad but the early stats from Mexico are 7% fatatlity...could weaken or could mutate stronger form in coming days weeks...looks like it will go global as now already cases in Oregon and nebraska. Also dont know if Tamiflu will work or not

This germ has components of

This germ has components of Avian bovine and human flu virus. Lets hope it doesnt turn to nasty. Man just when I thought life was getting HO Hum....The one thing I am upset about is having to shave off my beard because the N-95 wont fit if I dont.... Sad Some of us are already planning to stay away from our homes to try to reduce the risk of transmission to our families if this thing goes pandemic...I wonder if the Ramada has a pool Smiling!

1918 Spanish flu pandemic

1918 Spanish flu pandemic was swine flu. As for how we're to deal with it, read news articles about how Mexico City is dealing with it and check with your local health dept or see if PBS put a piece about which they did a few years ago online (virulent and deadly = tent hospitals). If it starts to hit your area - stock up on what you need to stay at home as much as possible (you could always beat the rush and get prepared).

Addendum

Historical perpective related to the current outbreak: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103495140

I'm doing good Cristal;

I'm doing good Cristal; thanks. I have a call into my dr. I think the splint might need an adjustment.

Bones, beards should be outlawed. Laughing out loud I'm not worried about this, but here is another story where it has spread.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTgD3ZjvANrI&refer=home

The WHO has stated it is

The WHO has stated it is still TOO EARLY to tell where this germ is headed ultimately. It IS mutating and MAY still become pandemic material...Maybe this is just wave one and once it gets to the mideast and malayasia and starts swapping genes with the avian flu....LOOK OUT.

Dear Jane; Stick to what you

Dear Jane; Stick to what you know when posting...the 1918 WAS NOT bovine...it closely resemble AVIAN...H5N1 this is H1N1/// This flu has "components" that are Avian. There is also unsubstantiated questions about this germ being a "lab Hybrid"...but
Kindly correct your post if you still can.

bones wrote: Dear Jane;

bones wrote:

Dear Jane; Stick to what you know when posting...the 1918 WAS NOT bovine...it closely resemble AVIAN...H5N1 this is H1N1/// This flu has "components" that are Avian. There is also unsubstantiated questions about this germ being a "lab Hybrid"...but
Kindly correct your post if you still can.

Bones, in your rush to put me down, you didn't do your homework. Pray tell, have you called/written the CDC to tell them to correct the information they've released to the public?

Unless youve got something

Unless youve got something else...the latest research I am aware of shows the 1918 flu MOST resembles the modern avian flu:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic#Spanish_flu_research
Looks like its YOU who didnt do their homework...That is one point for me 0 for you Smiling

"The impact of this pandemic

"The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 1918–1919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (excepting human infections from avian viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus, including "drifted" H1N1 viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 virus, updated by subsequently incorporated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface proteins, making the 1918 virus indeed the "mother" of all pandemics.

"In 1918, the cause of human influenza and its links to avian and swine influenza were unknown. Despite clinical and epidemiologic similarities to influenza pandemics of 1889, 1847, and even earlier, many questioned whether such an explosively fatal disease could be influenza at all. That question did not begin to be resolved until the 1930s, when closely related influenza viruses (now known to be H1N1 viruses) were isolated, first from pigs and shortly thereafter from humans. Seroepidemiologic studies soon linked both of these viruses to the 1918 pandemic (Cool. Subsequent research indicates that descendants of the 1918 virus still persists enzootically in pigs. They probably also circulated continuously in humans, undergoing gradual antigenic drift and causing annual epidemics, until the 1950s. With the appearance of a new H2N2 pandemic strain in 1957 ("Asian flu"), the direct H1N1 viral descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain disappeared from human circulation entirely, although the related lineage persisted enzootically in pigs. But in 1977, human H1N1 viruses suddenly "reemerged" from a laboratory freezer (9). They continue to circulate endemically and epidemically.

"Thus in 2006, 2 major descendant lineages of the 1918 H1N1 virus, as well as 2 additional reassortant lineages, persist naturally: a human epidemic/endemic H1N1 lineage, a porcine enzootic H1N1 lineage (so-called classic swine flu), and the reassorted human H3N2 virus lineage, which like the human H1N1 virus, has led to a porcine H3N2 lineage. None of these viral descendants, however, approaches the pathogenicity of the 1918 parent virus. Apparently, the porcine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages uncommonly infect humans, and the human H1N1 and H3N2 lineages have both been associated with substantially lower rates of illness and death than the virus of 1918. In fact, current H1N1 death rates are even lower than those for H3N2 lineage strains (prevalent from 1968 until the present). H1N1 viruses descended from the 1918 strain, as well as H3N2 viruses, have now been cocirculating worldwide for 29 years and show little evidence of imminent extinction."

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

bones wrote: Unless youve

bones wrote:

Unless youve got something else...the latest research I am aware of shows the 1918 flu MOST resembles the modern avian flu:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic#Spanish_flu_research
Looks like its YOU who didnt do their homework...That is one point for me 0 for you Smiling

Sorry bones, but I think Jane has the right of it:

Experimental infection of pigs with the human 1918 pandemic influenza virus.
Weingartl HM, Albrecht RA, Lager KM, Babiuk S, Marszal P, Neufeld J, Embury-Hyatt C, Lekcharoensuk P, Tumpey TM, García-Sastre A, Richt JA.

National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

Swine influenza was first recognized as a disease entity during the 1918 "Spanish flu" pandemic. The aim of this work was to determine the virulence of a plasmid-derived human 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (reconstructed 1918, or 1918/rec, virus) in swine using a plasmid-derived A/swine/Iowa/15/1930 H1N1 virus (1930/rec virus), representing the first isolated influenza virus, as a reference. Four-week-old piglets were inoculated intratracheally with either the 1930/rec or the 1918/rec virus or intranasally with the 1918/rec virus. A transient increase in temperature and mild respiratory signs developed postinoculation in all virus-inoculated groups. In contrast to other mammalian hosts (mice, ferrets, and macaques) where infection with the 1918/rec virus was lethal, the pigs did not develop severe respiratory distress or become moribund. Virus titers in the lower respiratory tract as well as macro- and microscopic lesions at 3 and 5 days postinfection (dpi) were comparable between the 1930/rec and 1918/rec virus-inoculated animals. In contrast to the 1930/rec virus-infected animals, at 7 dpi prominent lung lesions were present in only the 1918/rec virus-infected animals, and all the piglets developed antibodies at 7 dpi. Presented data support the hypothesis that the 1918 pandemic influenza virus was able to infect and replicate in swine, causing a respiratory disease, and that the virus was likely introduced into the pig population during the 1918 pandemic, resulting in the current lineage of the classical H1N1 swine influenza viruses.
PMID: 19224986 [PubMed - in process]

And here's another one:

The 1918 "Spanish flu" in Spain.
Trilla A, Trilla G, Daer C.

Hospital Clinic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomediques August Pi I Sunyer, University of Barcelona and Centre de Recerca en Salut Internacional de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic was the most devastating epidemic in modern history. Here, we review epidemiological and historical data about the 1918-1919 influenza epidemic in Spain. On 22 May 1918, the epidemic was a headline in Madrid's ABC newspaper. The infectious disease most likely reached Spain from France, perhaps as the result of the heavy railroad traffic of Spanish and Portuguese migrant workers to and from France. The total numbers of persons who died of influenza in Spain were officially estimated to be 147,114 in 1918, 21,235 in 1919, and 17,825 in 1920. However, it is likely that >260,000 Spaniards died of influenza; 75% of these persons died during the second period of the epidemic, and 45% died during October 1918 alone. The Spanish population growth index was negative for 1918 (net loss, 83,121 persons). Although a great deal of evidence indicates that the 1918 A(H1N1) influenza virus unlikely originated in and spread from Spain, the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic will always be known as the Spanish flu.

PMID: 18652556 [PubMed - in process]

How's that for homework?

I was going to stay out of

I was going to stay out of this one, as it's personal for me. In 1918, members of my family died in the flu epidemic. As I have researched my family history, I have also researched the history of this period of time and how the flu spread. Now, Bones, I admit fully to not being a doctor. But the historical research I have done related to my family history lines up with Jane, Mic, and Katherine. Perhaps a different tale is told in Canada. My relatives died in NYC. They, according to the historians, died of a variant of a swine flu.

You are all not reading

You are all not reading it...The gene sequence verifys that the germ was from Birds to humans...not birds to pigs to humans...Even though it is H1 N1 it more closely resembles the H5N1 flu..Sorry wont concede on this one
Maybe however we are BOTH right if this is true...the strain is weaponized:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/swine-flu-attack-likely-a-beta-test.html
Lots on this even from CDC in so far as the genetic makeup is bizarre in that it is from 3 sources pig bird and human AND is from 3 continent sources...Hmmmmmm sounds suspicous to me

Guess it doesn't matter

Guess it doesn't matter whether we all agree on
one flu from the other -
Thing is - we should be concentrating on how to plan
IF it comes our way. Stores will soon be sold out
of the sanitizing gel - and I can bet the grocery
stores won't have any soup left either.
Just got news that in Sacramento CA - at St. Mels
Catholic school- a 7th grader is confirmed with the
swine flu. While waiting for confirmation they had announced
"no school" this week.
Those parents must be very nervous.

So far no panic but people are bugging
Gov. Schwarzenegger to get on the horn and
think about shutting down schools for a bit.
Isn't it better these kids live
than "learn" right now?

The social havoc may be as

The social havoc may be as bad as the germ. The WHO MAY raise the pandemic level to 4-5/6. So far looks like this is not the 30% mortality killer flu BUT this could change and what happens if this thing goes global and starts swapping genes with the H5N1 in malayasia and egypt...In fact watch egypt and the mideast because this is the hot spot for H5N1...

Just an addendum to my

Just an addendum to my previous post. A simple primer on the current H1N1 strain and its origins, and comparison with H3N2 and H5N1:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8020125.stm

bones wrote: You are all

bones wrote:

You are all not reading it...

bones,

YOU are the ONLY one NOT reading, not even what's in front of you. I said

JaneQPatient wrote:

1918 Spanish flu pandemic was swine flu. As for how we're to deal with it, read news articles about how Mexico City is dealing with it and check with your local health dept or see if PBS put a piece about which they did a few years ago online (virulent and deadly = tent hospitals). If it starts to hit your area - stock up on what you need to stay at home as much as possible (you could always beat the rush and get prepared).

Addendum

Historical perpective related to the current outbreak: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103495140

To which you responded with the following:

bones wrote:

Dear Jane; Stick to what you know when posting...the 1918 WAS NOT bovine...it closely resemble AVIAN...H5N1 this is H1N1/// This flu has "components" that are Avian. There is also unsubstantiated questions about this germ being a "lab Hybrid"...but
Kindly correct your post if you still can.

Wherein you claimed that I claimed that it was "bovine" flu in 1918. You're not reading what's in front of you. You make accusations that someone doesn't' know what they're talking about by claiming they said something they didn't, the something which you yourself made up and then posted it as if it were true when clearly it wasn't and they you tell the person whose statement you personally willfully misrepresented to "correct" their post.

Now, I don't expect everyone who read things on this forum to know this but qualified doctors (MDs) definitely know the following:

Bovine = cow

porcine = pig

What, didn't you think I could know any latin? You've read what I've written here. You should have known better.

In addition, what you did was use a logical fallacy to try to prove what you wanted people to believe. Claiming that I said something I didn't then railing against your make up accusation. Its one of your favorites. What, you thought I wouldn't notice? God, you're desperate.

So once again, let me remind you bones that I was talking about the 1918 flu pandemic having been found to be "swine" flu.

As for the rest of what you wrote its a load of bs as it purports to relate back to what I stated to begin with which, I obviously need to remind you right here, so here it is again

JaneQPatient wrote:

1918 Spanish flu pandemic was swine flu. As for how we're to deal with it, read news articles about how Mexico City is dealing with it and check with your local health dept or see if PBS put a piece about which they did a few years ago online (virulent and deadly = tent hospitals). If it starts to hit your area - stock up on what you need to stay at home as much as possible (you could always beat the rush and get prepared).

Addendum

Historical perpective related to the current outbreak: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103495140

As for your paranoid theories about it coming from a lab or being weaponized, I suggest you get together with conspiracy theorists in this article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/mexico/5226323/Swine-flu-Mexico-City-is-like-a-ghost-town.html

Do yourself a favor and get a grip (iow, stop embarrassing yourself and the medical profession) before you go responding to any of my posts.

I wonder if it will reap as

I wonder if it will reap as much havoc as the pandemic of SARS a few years back....

Teh only one embarassing

Teh only one embarassing themselves is you.You havent posted one article the "proves" 1918 flu was swine. SEVERAL recent articles like the one I posted from Wiki states the 1918 flu was AVIAN in origin and all recent relatives may have Pig components but it FIRST came from avian.
YOu may know Latin and logic but you know diddly about medicine Jane...nice try though Smiling

What you are overlooking is

What you are overlooking is H1N1 is NOT synonymous with Swine H1 N1 can also be Avian in origin. If you READ the article closely you will see this more clearly

bones wrote: What you are

bones wrote:

What you are overlooking is H1N1 is NOT synonymous with Swine H1 N1 can also be Avian in origin. If you READ the article closely you will see this more clearly

If that's true, then why do the abstracts I provided above refer to the 1918 Spanish Flu to as H1N1?

MicOnTheNorthShore

MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Great article Mic...
Of interest:
"What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus?

Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)."

Not even the experts can agree as to the true origin. It's been an extremely interesting read though. Scary stuff.

Daenerys

Daenerys wrote:
MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Great article Mic...
Of interest:
"What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus?

Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)."

Not even the experts can agree as to the true origin. It's been an extremely interesting read though. Scary stuff.

I guess the really relevant question is: If it catches on and takes off the way the 1918 Spanish Flu did, what sort of fatality rate are we looking at?

The flu germ is a

The flu germ is a heamagluttanin and nucleopeptide. This is the H and N used to TYPE the virus. What I have been trying to say to Jane is that H1N1 is NOT just from pigs as she was implying. The CURRENT research seems to point that the ORIGIN of the germ is more AVIAN That means the 1918 flu likely had more parts that were avian than pig and one researcher is claiming the jump in 1918 was direct from birds(avian) to people. Subsequent to that the germ may have jumped BACK to pigs and mutated to the modern swine flu for the subsequent pandemic strains.
Jane just needs to stick to the law and philosophy arguements That is where she shines best and just like her "dumb" permanent withdrawal from effexor side effect post...she often posts stuff without understanding the science behind it and will claim it as fact.
That is just her style...But we still love her anyway..I just cant resist pointing out when she goofs...because she is so quick to point out when anyone else is but cant see when she has a log in her own eye

Daenerys

Daenerys wrote:
MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Great article Mic...
Of interest:
"What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus?

Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)."

Not even the experts can agree as to the true origin. It's been an extremely interesting read though. Scary stuff.

Further down in that section it says, "Because the 1918 gene segments have more synonymous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far."

Katherine wrote: Daenerys

Katherine wrote:
Daenerys wrote:
MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Great article Mic...
Of interest:
"What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus?

Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)."

Not even the experts can agree as to the true origin. It's been an extremely interesting read though. Scary stuff.

Further down in that section it says, "Because the 1918 gene segments have more synonymous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far."

I took that to mean, that the original strain is extinct. ?
It's interesting, isn't it? Smiling

bones wrote: The flu germ

bones wrote:

The flu germ is a heamagluttanin and nucleopeptide. This is the H and N used to TYPE the virus. What I have been trying to say to Jane is that H1N1 is NOT just from pigs as she was implying. The CURRENT research seems to point that the ORIGIN of the germ is more AVIAN That means the 1918 flu likely had more parts that were avian than pig and one researcher is claiming the jump in 1918 was direct from birds(avian) to people. Subsequent to that the germ may have jumped BACK to pigs and mutated to the modern swine flu for the subsequent pandemic strains.
Jane just needs to stick to the law and philosophy arguements That is where she shines best and just like her "dumb" permanent withdrawal from effexor side effect post...she often posts stuff without understanding the science behind it and will claim it as fact.
That is just her style...But we still love her anyway..I just cant resist pointing out when she goofs...because she is so quick to point out when anyone else is but cant see when she has a log in her own eye

In my opinion, some doctors have a log in their eye too, and they may know science - but they don't know the art of loving their patients - (although that Random character did seem exceptional.)
Bonesy boy - there's an art and a science to good patient care. You got stuff to learn, in my opinion, and personally, I think Jane does very well in pointing out weaknesses.

Katherine wrote: I guess

Katherine wrote:

I guess the really relevant question is: If it catches on and takes off the way the 1918 Spanish Flu did, what sort of fatality rate are we looking at?

What *really* interests me is the rapidity of the evolution of the virus between the 3 infection dates. It's a definite puzzle.

Current mortality rate in

Current mortality rate in Mexico is 7% For Avian flu H5N1 it is closer to 30-40. However Avian flu is still phase 3 meaning it is transmitted from birds to people and not YET person to person...Once it mutates and starts person to person it could be more or less mortality...just dont know yet...

The literature from the WHO

The literature from the WHO is indeed complex and I'm not so certain, decisive. What it details what is known about the origins of H1N1, I'm not certain that it comes to any substantive conclusion.

A simpler, yet based on fact, conclusion may be found in an article likely written by the news source's resident science editor:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090424/swine_flu_090424/20090427?hub=MedExpress&s_name=

It does at least address the apparent confusion of information seemingly pointing to both swine and avian origins of the H1N1 virus.

Daenerys wrote: Katherine

Daenerys wrote:
Katherine wrote:
Daenerys wrote:
MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Great article Mic...
Of interest:
"What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus?

Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the contrary, the 1918 virus appears to be an avianlike influenza virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza virus gene sequences from a number of fixed specimens of wild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian viruses isolated today, indicating that avian viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25)."

Not even the experts can agree as to the true origin. It's been an extremely interesting read though. Scary stuff.

Further down in that section it says, "Because the 1918 gene segments have more synonymous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far."

I took that to mean, that the original strain is extinct. ?
It's interesting, isn't it? Smiling

Yeah it is! In a morbid kind of way.

Daenerys wrote: Katherine

Daenerys wrote:
Katherine wrote:

I guess the really relevant question is: If it catches on and takes off the way the 1918 Spanish Flu did, what sort of fatality rate are we looking at?

What *really* interests me is the rapidity of the evolution of the virus between the 3 infection dates. It's a definite puzzle.

I know! It is strange. Very, very strange. Things don't just mutate like that overnight. And to have it spread as far and wide and FAST as it did... Maybe it was a biological weapon that got away from its handlers? After all, there was a world war raging.

Influenza A Primer Swine Flu

Influenza A Primer

Swine Flu FAQ

Swine flu is caused by type A influenza virus and gives pigs the flu. Swine flu viruses cause regular outbreaks of flu in pigs but death is infrequent. Presently, there are four main influenza type A swine flu viruses that have been isolated in pigs: H1N1, H1N2, H3N2, and H3N1. Most of the recently isolated influenza viruses from pigs have been H1N1 viruses. Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans. However, sporadic human infections have occurred. Most commonly, these cases occur in persons with direct exposure to pigs, such as children near pigs at a fair or workers in the swine industry. In addition, there have been documented cases of one person spreading swine flu to others. The symptoms of swine flu in people are expected to be similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. (Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/24/f-swineflu-faq.html

------

FAQ: How Viruses Mutate - Bird Flu vs. Swine Flu

Almost all human diseases originate from other animals and then adapt to human hosts, says University of Guelph agriculture professor David Waltner-Toews, author of The Chickens Fight Back: Pandemic Panics and Deadly Diseases that Jump from Animals to People.

With influenza, different strains of the virus affect people, birds and pigs. Naturally, human influenza is the easiest for humans to get and to transmit to other humans. Humans can also get bird influenza and pig influenza, but it typically requires very close contact with the animals, Waltner-Toews said .

Bird or avian influenza is particularly hard to get, but humans who do get it experience very severe symptoms. That is why people were worried about a deadly pandemic if avian influenza were to mutate in such a way as to become easily transmissible between humans. Swine influenza is somewhat easier to transmit to humans but its symptoms tend to be milder than bird influenza.

Most flus contracted by humans are made up of predominately human influenza, but contain small pieces of avian or swine influenza. Swine flu is unusual because it is made up mostly of swine influenza but contains small amounts of avian and human influenza.

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2009/04/27/virus-mutate.html

------

Investigating the Swine Flu

A pandemic is sustained human-to-human transmission of disease over a wide area. Infectiousness, not severity of the disease, is the main consideration. On April 27, the World Health Organization raised its pandemic alert to Level 4, verifying that human-to-human spread of swine flu has occurred in Mexico. The higher level is two steps short of a full-blown pandemic.

The Level 4 alert means there has been sustained human-to-human transmission causing outbreaks in at least one country, but it does not mean that a pandemic is inevitable. For that declaration, the WHO considers three factors: (see full article)

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/27/f-swine-flu-questions.html

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Pandemic Preparation: Dealing with Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Since the 2003 Toronto outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), Canada has been a world leader in preparing for the next pandemic — whether it's a new strain of flu or some other infectious disease not yet on the World Health Organization's (WHO) radar.

The WHO believes that the world is currently closer to another influenza pandemic than it has been any time since 1968, when the last of the 20th century's three pandemics swept the globe. It has developed a global influenza preparedness plan outlining the role of the WHO and recommendations for national measures before and during pandemics.

The organization uses six phases to categorize the risks facing the globe. (see article)

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/24/f-fluprep.html

------

[b]Virus FAQs

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/flu/faq_virus.html

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Misconceptions About the Flu

Each flu season, usually from October to March, the disease cuts a swath through workplaces, schools and hospital emergency rooms. Yet despite its big impact, the flu is poorly understood by most. We think of it as a nuisance, like the snow, but it's much more than that.

Here are the top 10 misconceptions about the flu.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/flu/misconceptions.html

------

Tips for Boosting Your Immune System

The common cold, characterized by sneezing, runny nose and congestion is quite different from the flu, which includes a sudden onset of fever, headache, muscle aches and exhaustion.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/flu/immune.html

------

Influenza: Battling The Last Great Virus

For centuries it has silently stalked us, killing tens of millions of people and evading all the best efforts at a permanent cure. It is influenza, a potentially lethal bug whose unique ability to reinvent itself in deadlier forms has prompted researchers to dub it the "last great virus" facing humanity. CBC Archives explores the deadly history of influenza and looks at what's being done to avoid a new global pandemic.

A cornucopia of old radio and television segments from years previous, including film clips from 1918 discussing the "Spanish Lady".

http://archives.cbc.ca/health/disease/topics/1965/

How This Influenza May Have

How This Influenza May Have Developed (Another Perspective)

"This flu that we are seeing is a new flu. In humans, we have receptors to replicate human flu. Avian flu similarly is replicated in birds, because they have only avian receptors. Pigs, however, are an interesting reservoir of influenza that not only have the capability of replicating flu virsuses that pigs get, but avian flu and human flu as well.

"Flu is quite common in swine herds. We don't know for sure, but what is thought to have happened is that a pig with swine flu became infected with Avian flu. This most likely happened through an infected waterfowl that had contaminated droppings with the Avian flu that then contaminated the swine feed. Simultaneously, the swine likely became infected from a worker who himself was infected with the human influenza and was handling the swine. All three viruses met in the swine "reservoir" and created what is called an "antigenic shift," a genetic reassortment of the flu viruses so that a new virus was created that had components of all three viruses.

"That flu then infected a human. But unlike pure swine flu that infects pig handlers and usually does not go much further, this brand new virus has evolved. It has now caused infections of varying severity in Mexico, United States, Canada and around the world." ...... (Source: Dr. Marla Shapiro)

http://healthblog.ctv.ca/post/A-look-at-how-this-swine-flu-virusmay-have-evolved.aspx

Still doesnt explain why

Still doesnt explain why there are 4 continental components as this has not been seen before to occur by natural selection. Dont have the expertise to say for sure but still am suspicious this may have been a lab leak Smiling And maybe I just dont know enough about American politics but Why is the outbreak being managed by Homeland security and not CDC
I thought natural disasters were under the guidance of FEMA or CDC and Homeland security was only for Terror attacks or man made threats??
Ok Sorry I have just spent too much time on the dark side of the conspiracy blogs Smiling

Well,you aren't alone. I

Well,you aren't alone.
I have to confess - that when it broke, my mind went
right to the fact that Obama was there at the onset-
We'll never know if that is why Homeland is involved or not

Why not make it mandatory for all who have gone to Mexico
to report to a health authority right away???

bones wrote: Still doesnt

bones wrote:

Still doesnt explain why there are 4 continental components as this has not been seen before to occur by natural selection. Dont have the expertise to say for sure but still am suspicious this may have been a lab leak Smiling

If I remember correctly, the outbreak in New Zealand were traced back to a group of students (?) who had just gotten back from a mexican vacation. Or something like that. I think at least one of the other outbreaks came about the same way. Given the low number of cases reported in countries outside of Mexico, I suspect the other outbreaks will be traced back to a similiar origin.

As to why so many different types of flu in this one virus, I also read in either the CNN or WHO article that viruses like this one come about when one animal is infected with multiple viruses within a certain period of time. The viruses exchange genes and a new strain is born which then goes about infecting others.

I've never been to Mexico City, but from what I've heard and read the outskirts are like a shanty town with chickens and pigs roaming around on the streets. That a virus like this could develop naturally in a place like that doesn't surprise me in the least.

A lab leak doesn't sound impossible, but I doubt it was a terrorist attack. Its spreading too slowly for it to be a deliberate attack. If you are going to launch an attack then you launch it. You don't just let it go. In other words you release the pathogen in several high-traffic locations over a period of several days, maybe even weeks. If that had been the case here, we wouldn't be talking about its potential for a pandemic, we would be talking about a pandemic in process. Yes, there have been 149 deaths in Mexico City and between 1,500-2,000 infected but keep in mind, we are talking about a city with a population greater than 8,000,000 (eight million). 2,000 infections is nothing to sneeze at (no pun intended) but its still less than .025% (that's twenty five one hundredths of one percent) of the city's population. If this was a deliberate assault I think we would be looking at much higher numbers. And if this was a deliberate international attack the other outbreaks would almost certainly be comparable in size.

Just my two cents
Kat

bones wrote: Still doesnt

bones wrote:

Still doesnt explain why there are 4 continental components as this has not been seen before to occur by natural selection. Dont have the expertise to say for sure but still am suspicious this may have been a lab leak Smiling And maybe I just dont know enough about American politics but Why is the outbreak being managed by Homeland security and not CDC
I thought natural disasters were under the guidance of FEMA or CDC and Homeland security was only for Terror attacks or man made threats??
Ok Sorry I have just spent too much time on the dark side of the conspiracy blogs Smiling

There is a theory that this flu started with Smithfield Farms, a pig farm just out of Mexico city:

http://www.businessinsider.com/is-a-smithfield-farm-ground-zero-for-swine-flu-2009-4

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h6VKpIFkn2z95MlbRey-rX5vT-fgD97R5H880

bones wrote: I thought

bones wrote:

I thought natural disasters were under the guidance of FEMA or CDC and Homeland security was only for Terror attacks or man made threats??
Ok Sorry I have just spent too much time on the dark side of the conspiracy blogs Smiling

Maybe because--at first glance--it does have the look of something that's both man made and deliberate.

Here is a link to origins of

Here is a link to origins of 1918 flu...emphatically its genes are most like that of ...

Nah NAh NAh nannah...Im right... Smiling AVIAN Flu
Who was it that said I was an embarrassment to the medical profession...Ah Jane
Stick this in your logical fallacy ear
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/10/1005_051005_bird_flu.html
And Oh yeh next time you choose to post medical facts...check with me first so I can tell you if you are right... But you may have to wait until I am done doing the happy dance having proved you WRONG Smiling

I guess this is more serious

I guess this is more serious than what I took it for. I really don't understand why people would continue to visit Mexico until this gets figured out.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-wellbeing/health-news/us-baby-dies-as-new-spanish-case-raises-swine-flu-alarm-1676007.html

Now this IS

Now this IS scary:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B7581-4CRPC4H-1R&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=44e5f490e51aa84fec3f18e0bc84377e
Like I said wait until we get H1N1 swine 2009 strain into malyasia and viet nam and mix with H5N1...lets just hope it downgrade from 50% to 10% mortality...my prediction is this is only phase 1 of a first wave pandemic will likely be like a really bad flu season but NOT catastrophic...BUT if something comes of the natural reassortment with the Avain flu....Yikes Sad

Just wondering why China has

Just wondering why China has not been affected so
far?
No mention of it anywhere.......

I'm reposting because my

I'm reposting because my original post did not show up~
Wonder why?

I was just commenting that there has been no mention
of China being affected [or infected] at this point.

WHO has just raised

WHO has just raised Pandemic threat level to a 5/6. Looks like I will get to use that SARS kit after all.

bones wrote: WHO has just

bones wrote:

WHO has just raised Pandemic threat level to a 5/6. Looks like I will get to use that SARS kit after all.

ok Bones.... what do we do to prepare?
Where can I get surgical masks?

Dae: IF this goes to level 6

Dae:
IF this goes to level 6 remember this just denotes we are IN a pandemic but MOST cases may be mild or it may fizzle out. If it goes greater virulence we are in trouble and then I would:
1. Wear a mask in public
2. Avoid large public gatherings
3. Use hand sanitizer after touching anything public including money
4. DO NOT TOUCH...nose or mouth without hand sanitizing first even good soap and water will work well
5. Have supplie of essential food and water to survive the first 5 months without having to go out in public..by then the vaccine should be available
Keep in mind number 5 is ONLY IF this germ creeps up in mortality.

I bought mine from a medical

I bought mine from a medical company through Amazon.com. I'm probably going to go over to my place tomorrow and pick it up.

bones wrote: Dae: IF this

bones wrote:

Dae:
IF this goes to level 6 remember this just denotes we are IN a pandemic but MOST cases may be mild or it may fizzle out. If it goes greater virulence we are in trouble and then I would:
1. Wear a mask in public
2. Avoid large public gatherings
3. Use hand sanitizer after touching anything public including money
4. DO NOT TOUCH...nose or mouth without hand sanitizing first even good soap and water will work well
5. Have supplie of essential food and water to survive the first 5 months without having to go out in public..by then the vaccine should be available
Keep in mind number 5 is ONLY IF this germ creeps up in mortality.

Why the mask? Most "television medicos" I've been listening to suggest that it's a waste of money. One basically needs to be coughed or sneezed upon to become infected, and unless one's entire face is covered, a mask will not provide protection against germs landing just outside the mask area, where they would. In either case, a "recipient" would need to wash their face and hands immediately thereafter to have an assurance of avoiding infection.

bones wrote: Here is a

bones wrote:

Here is a link to origins of 1918 flu...emphatically its genes are most like that of ...

Nah NAh NAh nannah...Im right... Smiling AVIAN Flu
Who was it that said I was an embarrassment to the medical profession...Ah Jane
Stick this in your logical fallacy ear
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/10/1005_051005_bird_flu.html
And Oh yeh next time you choose to post medical facts...check with me first so I can tell you if you are right... But you may have to wait until I am done doing the happy dance having proved you WRONG Smiling

Like I said, its the CDC's info, take it UP with them!

With references like the one shown below which you rely upon

JaneQPatient wrote:
bones wrote:

looks like you know what your talking about Jane See how much better you perform when you keep to your element Smiling

Once again, you're in such a rush to make personal attacks you don't even bother to properly place your response to me but to the ether while highjacking a separate thread just to do so.

As I said before bones, you don't like what I've said which came directly from the CDC you TAKE IT UP WITH THE CDC! http://www.ratemds.com/social/?q=node/36263

As for references which you base your displaced attackes on me, folks, this is the content of the footnote relied upon in his wiki article which currently resides at "30 ^ Avian Bird Flu. 1918 Flu (Spanish flu epidemic).

"avian-bird-flu.info

Related Searches: The 1918 Spanish Flu | 1918 Influenza Pandemic | 1918 Influenza | Buy Swine Flu Vaccine | Swine Flu Face Mask | Bird Flu Respirator
Buy this Domain
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Again, you don't like what the CDC claims, you take it up with them! Though given the quality of your references, as shown above, its no wonder you go out of your way to keep making personal attacks against me rather than taking your swine flu assertions and claims of "wrong" info up with the CDC.

Stop wasting peoples time here with your personal vendettas and go write a letter to the CDC about your problems!

you're doing a jig?

Stop highjacking threads http://www.ratemds.com/social/?q=node/36340 for your purient pleasures and take the matter up where it belongs which as you very well know is the CDC.

Yehh Right LOL Like Where

Yehh Right LOL Like Where is YOUR reference from the CDC...I have posted the one from National Geographic Smiling Im still doing the happy dance Smiling :) Eye-wink Like I said stick to the legal stuff and youll do fine here!

bones wrote: Here is a

bones wrote:

Here is a link to origins of 1918 flu...emphatically its genes are most like that of ...

Nah NAh NAh nannah...Im right... Smiling AVIAN Flu
Who was it that said I was an embarrassment to the medical profession...Ah Jane
Stick this in your logical fallacy ear
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/10/1005_051005_bird_flu.html
And Oh yeh next time you choose to post medical facts...check with me first so I can tell you if you are right... But you may have to wait until I am done doing the happy dance having proved you WRONG Smiling

BONES!!!!! (I'm speaking to you in my sternest teacher voice right now).

I thought I settled this on the other thread. I have been in numerous waiting rooms now in the past two weeks in an area with documented swine flu victims. I said that I would let everyone know when I had grown a curly tail or feathers. Then we'll all know!

I am so disappointed in you, Bones. I thought you, with your logical mind, would see the merit of this approach. Laughing out loud

You really ARE a Ninny

You really ARE a Ninny Jane...Where in the heck did you find these references on the Wiki link IF you link to the article in Wiki there are tonnes of footnotes...SOME ARE FROM THE CDC as well
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm
IF you care to read under the heading "WHAT WAS THE ANIMAL HOST" This link FROM THE CDC (the study is from NIH in case you havent heard about it it is the large center for reserch well known)says it was a novel AVIAN FLU virus.
IF you have to make up arguements by trying to discredit my link from wiki....MAN you really are a poor debater...I thought better of you until now I was acutally learning from you as to how to support my arguements with credible evidence..UNLESS YOU CAN SHOW ME THE EXACT CDC ARTICLE like the one I provided above....SHOVE OFF... The 1918 flu was avian in orgin and you got no more to say about it Sad Man some people are so stubborn they wont admit when they are wrong....I used to be like that...but hey Jane I am sure you will learn So if you care to score points of people with arguements or logic STICK TO LAW or ETHICS..because you really DONT DO WELL IN SCIENCE.

Now that I am cooled

Now that I am cooled off....this article also mentions the 1918 flu came in several waves and so what we dont know is if this virus is going to behave similarily. I am worried about natural reassortment

bones wrote: Now that I am

bones wrote:

Now that I am cooled off....this article also mentions the 1918 flu came in several waves and so what we dont know is if this virus is going to behave similarily. I am worried about natural reassortment

Although I am not a doctor and I don't play one on tv, may I take the liberty of prescribing one hour of looking at aircraft for you Bones? You are very, very cranky.

bones wrote: You really

bones wrote:

You really ARE a Ninny Jane...Where in the heck did you find these references on the Wiki link IF you link to the article in Wiki there are tonnes of footnotes...SOME ARE FROM THE CDC as well
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Uh, Bones, you may not have wished to cite that which has already been posted here. I think it's called redundancy. Smiling

On 04/27/2009 at 09:12, MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Did you read the webpage, in its entirety? In part, it states (my emphasis):

QUOTE
The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique feature, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The virus of the 1918 pandemic likely expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neuraminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 virus were derived from an avianlike influenza virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15,24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the virus also support this conclusion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the initial circulation of the 1918 precursor virus in humans at approximately 1915–1918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling.
ENDQUOTE

Man Ill feel better now. I


Man Ill feel better now. I seriously need to find a WWII warbird forum to hang out for a while where some REAL pilots can keep me in my place and once I lose some of my ****iness Ill come back here hopefully the piggy flu will be gone by then
Oh yeh by the way June 20th Hamilton airport. Most of the classic warbirds..including my personal favourite Corsair and P-51 will be there flying for the day Smiling

(No subject)

(No subject)

MicOnTheNorthShore

MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:
bones wrote:

You really ARE a Ninny Jane...Where in the heck did you find these references on the Wiki link IF you link to the article in Wiki there are tonnes of footnotes...SOME ARE FROM THE CDC as well
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Uh, Bones, you may not have wished to cite that which has already been posted here. I think it's called redundancy. Smiling

On 04/27/2009 at 09:12, MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

The CDC's history of the 1898, 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Did you read the webpage, in its entirety? In part, it states (my emphasis):

QUOTE
The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique feature, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The virus of the 1918 pandemic likely expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neuraminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 virus were derived from an avianlike influenza virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15,24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the virus also support this conclusion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the initial circulation of the 1918 precursor virus in humans at approximately 1915–1918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling.
ENDQUOTE

Mic, you can ask him if he reads the stuff all you want. The evidence already presented here is demostrative of the fact that he doesn't. He's too busy trying to score based on bs that he doesn't even know is bs because he hasn't read it let alone fact checked. Anything goes for him just so long as it appears on the surface to score for him. Same goes for the conspiracy blather he likes to post as well. He can't even be bother to to reply to an actual post. He just logs ins and blurts his bull willy nilly. Nobody needs to trip him up. He trips himself up. Yet he keeps on going like the energizer bunny. Come to think of it so do the conspiracy theorists. He's better off playing in their garden.

Ah, he was lurking and waiting for me to post something.

http://www.planetspace.org/lo

http://www.planetspace.org/lo/uav.htm
But there may be restitution yet as our CEO has said I can have my turn on the simulator flying the 1/4scale// Who knows maybe i'll even get a chance at the real thing to fly by remote...these birds are currently 1/4 scale UAV's Smiling
Yeh I have been cranky as we lost our GAO appeal
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2009/04/23/3610/
But we arent dead yet Smiling

Night all!

Night all!

You rate yourself too highly

You rate yourself too highly Jane.
I only post what I feel true...no different than anyone else here yourself included..like your logical fallacy willy nilly
And True I dont even bother to respond to your posts except when YOU ARE WRONG Smiling

So Jane one last question Do

So Jane one last question Do you know anything about GAO appeals

bones wrote: Interesting

bones wrote:

Interesting photo. I lived on the air base that the Chipmunk was flown out of. It was Centralia, Ontario. The air base was closed a LONG time ago. I was there for one year in 62/63.

The Chipmunk was a two seater trainer used by the RCAF (Royal Canadian Air Force).

"Hybrid virus: Where and

"Hybrid virus: Where and when did it originate?

"This particular strain looks partly like another hybrid virus. That virus was a swine virus that acquired a little bit of avian genetic material and a little bit of human genetic material sometime in 1997. It has been circulating in pigs in North America since that time.

"This new virus seems to have taken that hybrid and then acquired some genetic material from an influenza virus that's been seen in parts of Europe and Asia."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090501/virus_strain_090502/20090502?hub=Health

MicOnTheNorthShore

MicOnTheNorthShore wrote:

"Hybrid virus: Where and when did it originate?


.
.
.

is it any wonder why the

is it any wonder why the Muslim population thinks the west is screwed up...this picture explains a lot...

harleyman-2 wrote: is it

harleyman-2 wrote:

is it any wonder why the Muslim population thinks the west is screwed up...this picture explains a lot...

What's your big plan, Harley?

that is really interesting

that is really interesting post, thanks for the writing!
Research Paper on California

Expert Warns of

Expert Warns of Misunderstanding Behind 1918 Flu
Updated Wed. Aug. 12 2009 11:40 AM ET
The Canadian Press

TORONTO -- Unproven assumptions about the course of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic may be leading to misperceptions of what the swine flu virus has in store for the world, the scientist who decoded the genetic blueprint of the 1918 virus suggests in a newly published commentary.

Virologist Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, along with co-author and medical historian Dr. David Morens, argues there is no firm evidence that the 1918 virus ratchetted up in virulence in a fall wave - because there is no solid proof outbreaks of illness in the U.S. in the spring of 1918 were caused by the same virus.

Their commentary, published in this week's issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, suggested changes in virulence or transmissibility of the current pandemic virus are not inevitable. In fact, they wrote, there are reasons to hope for "a more indolent pandemic course and fewer deaths" than seen in many previous pandemics.

"I think every pandemic is completely different," Taubenberger said in an interview from Bethesda, Md., where he and Morens work at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"It emerges in a different way. Its genetics are going to be different. The population immunity by age is going to be different depending on what it is. So I think it's very difficult and perhaps a disservice to assume that a new pandemic is going to behave in a way like 1918."

The scientific community is split about what happened in the opening days of the notorious Spanish flu pandemic, which is believed to have killed upwards of 50 million people in 1918-1919.

Full Article:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090812/1918_flu_090812?s_name=&no_ads=

Interesting post! Get the

Interesting post! Get the best Research Paper on California from the best company

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